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The co-founder of BitMEX, Arthur Hayes, makes a bold prediction: the price of Bitcoin could surpass $250,000 by the end of 2025. This analysis is based on recent adjustments to monetary policy that could spur strong demand for the leading cryptocurrency. Arthur Hayes’ recent analysis is sure to catch the attention of many crypto market observers. According to him, the BTC price could reach $250,000 by the end of 2025 if the FED decides to pivot towards a quantitative easing (QE) policy. Specifically, Hayes bases this crypto prediction on the idea that the value of Bitcoin is heavily influenced by market expectations regarding the future supply of fiat currency. Analysis: If the FED increases the supply of dollars by adopting QE, demand for alternative assets like Bitcoin could rise due to the perceived devaluation of traditional currency. The latest actions by the FED are already showing signs of such a pivot. On April 1, it reduced the capacity for Treasury bond reductions from $25 billion to only $5 billion per month. According to Hayes, this decision marks the beginning of a bullish cycle for crypto assets. Having reached a local low of $76,500 last month, Bitcoin could indeed start its surge towards $250,000. Not all expert crypto analysts share Arthur Hayes’ optimistic vision . Jamie Coutts from Real Vision estimates, for example, that Bitcoin would hit a peak of $132,000 by the end of 2025. These projections are more conservative. They take into account current market trends, suggesting a less drastic impact of monetary policy on BTC’s price. But that’s not all! According to data from Polymarket , only 9% of traders are betting on a Bitcoin at $250,000. The majority (at 60%) believe that the price of the flagship cryptocurrency will stabilize around $110,000 in 2025. This sentiment reflects hesitation about the extent of the expected rally for BTC. While Hayes’ prediction is ambitious, it highlights the importance of monetary policy in determining the price of Bitcoin. Investors will need to closely monitor the FED’s decisions as well as the evolution of the global economy. These could redefine the trajectories of cryptocurrencies in the long term.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is expected to move toward renewed quantitative easing (QE), potentially focused on the U.S. Treasury bond market. This expectation follows a reported meeting between Powell and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in early March. In a blog post , BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes suggested Powell is preparing to scale back the Fed’s current quantitative tightening (QT) program. Hayes believes the Fed will support Treasury markets with new liquidity injections, possibly starting this summer. According to central banking observers, Bessent pointed out to Powell during their meeting that upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy decisions must align with the Treasury Department’s significant financing needs. The March meeting reportedly raised the urgency of potentially resuming QE to help absorb the large volume of new Treasury bond issuance required to manage ongoing federal deficits and handle substantial government debt rollovers smoothly. However, capital gains tax receipts remain a major funding source for the federal government. Those tax receipts depend heavily on rising equity market valuations to meet projections. Related: FOMC meeting this week: All eyes on Powell for rate hints and potential QT end, impacting crypto U.S. President Donald Trump’s stated trade policy goals also play a role in the broader economic picture. His administration’s focus remains centered on attempting to rebalance the large U.S. current account deficit and encourage shifts back toward more domestic manufacturing activity. President Trump has maintained publicly since his first term in 2016 that the U.S. trade deficit, particularly with China, is unsustainable for the nation’s long-term health. Historical economic context reinforces concerns about these long-term trade trajectories. China’s 1994 currency devaluation and its subsequent 2001 entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO) are often linked by economists to the decades-long offshoring of significant U.S. manufacturing capacity that followed. The result was a deep and persistent U.S. trade deficit over many years, as official current account data confirms. Trump’s proposed reversal of that long-term trend requires major domestic industrial policy support and likely substantial private investment. The Federal Reserve’s independent monetary policy decisions play a critical role in potentially enabling or hindering these broader fiscal and trade policy shifts pursued by the administration. Persistently tight monetary conditions, for example, risk slowing overall economic growth and potentially weakening equity market performance significantly. Related: Hayes Dismisses Tariffs as Noise, Eyes Fed QE Fueling $110k+ Bitcoin Powell’s potential policy adjustment toward renewed QE therefore likely signals a perceived need for broader fiscal and monetary policy alignment. Disclaimer: The information presented in this article is for informational and educational purposes only. The article does not constitute financial advice or advice of any kind. Coin Edition is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of the utilization of content, products, or services mentioned. Readers are advised to exercise caution before taking any action related to the company.

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink has warned that the continued deficit is threatening the US dollar’s dominance. In his annual letter , Fink said that if government spending is excessive, the dollar is likely to be challenged by Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Fink states that the national debt has grown at a rate that is threefold the rate of the GDP since 1989. He pointed out that in 2024, interest payments on America’s debt are set to cost over $952 billion, a figure that is way past what America spends on defence. He further predicts that mandatory expenditures and debt services could consume all the federal revenues by 2030, meaning the country will be in a permanent deficit. Fink further pointed out that fiscal imbalance may directly crush investors’ confidence in dollar-based financial assets. He said that Bitcoin may gradually transition into being considered more as a store of value, reducing American financial power. “If deficits keep on growing, America is in danger of losing this position to digital assets, such as Bitcoin,” Fink penned down. While sounding warning bells on debt, Fink also reaffirmed his support for blockchain and tokenization of assets, which he sees as the future of finance. He also believes that every stock, bond, and mutual fund can be tokenized, streamlining the process, reducing costs, and paving the way to fractional investment. Fink noted that tokenization has the potential to redefine older structures and create pathways to markets that were earlier limited to few, like Private Real Estate, Private Equity, etc. “Tokenization makes investing more democratic,” he stated. Fink affirmed and explained how blockchain could level the field for more participants. BlackRock has already begun making these strategic plays. Their $1.9bn Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund, created together with Securitize, is the biggest tokenized US Treasury product to this date. The fund is designed to promote efficiency in public and private markets through increased transparency and the use of cash, treasuries, and repo agreements to fund the program. Fink also expressed concerns over archaic finance-related infrastructure, stating that SWIFT is essentially “routing emails through the postal office.” According to him, blockchain will displace current systems as it will serve as the new infrastructure of the financial world. Institutional demand for Bitcoin is still growing rapidly. As CNF earlier reported , BlackRock launched its own Bitcoin ETF, IBIT, which managed over $50 billion in assets within a year. Fink admitted that such momentum indicates growing market confidence in Bitcoin as an investment instrument. Despite this, Fink supports decentralised finance but with some concerns. He argued that tokenization and DeFi can only become truly effecting if regulated. Some of the problems include the issue of identity and operational issues. “Markets do not become optimized such that everyone is provided the same level of services,” Fink stated, urging policymakers to adopt frameworks that ensure innovation does not outpace oversight. He called on regulators to support financial modernization while protecting market integrity.

Japan’s publicly listed bitcoin treasury company, Metaplanet Inc. (Tokyo Stock Exchange: 3350 / OTCQX: MTPLF), announced on April 1 that it had increased its bitcoin reserves by 696 BTC during the first quarter of fiscal year 2025. The acquisition was carried out through the company’s Bitcoin Income Generation business, which utilizes a strategy of selling cash-secured put options to generate income and accumulate bitcoin at advantageous prices. The firm disclosed that the bitcoin was purchased at an average price of 14,586,230 yen per bitcoin, totaling 10.152 billion yen in value. These transactions bring Metaplanet’s total bitcoin holdings to 4,046 BTC, with a cumulative average cost of 12,943,181 yen per coin. The company detailed the performance of its option-selling strategy, noting that it received 770,351,229 yen in premium income during the quarter, which is equivalent to 50.26 BTC. Metaplanet stated: A total of 696.00 BTC was added to the company’s holdings under this strategy during the quarter. The effective cost of acquiring bitcoin, when factoring in the premium income, was reduced to 13,479,404 yen per bitcoin—below the market price at the time these options were initiated. This approach allowed Metaplanet to optimize its capital deployment, obtaining more bitcoin for less capital than if it had executed direct spot market purchases. The firm also provided updated key performance indicators, which it uses to evaluate the success of its bitcoin accumulation efforts. Metaplanet stated: From July 1, 2024 to September 30, 2024, the company’s BTC Yield was 41.7%. From October 1, 2024 to December 31, 2024, the company’s BTC Yield was 309.8%. Quarter to Date, from January 1, 2025 to March 31, 2025, the company achieved a BTC Yield of 95.6%. The BTC Yield reflects the change in bitcoin per fully diluted share, and is used by Metaplanet to assess shareholder value creation through its bitcoin strategy. In addition, the company has continued to raise capital via stock acquisition rights and bond issuances to fund these purchases. 免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。