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Pro Tips for Using Alpha: ⏱ Prices refresh every 15s ⚙️ Trades are on-chain (gas fees apply) ⚠️ Tokens ≠ listings 📈 Narratives like AI, RWA, Meme Coins show up EARLY

I scanned over 25+ weekly outlooks (DXY & EUR). Are you all thinking the same thing, once again? Every Sunday, you make an outlook; Monday, the market invalidates it, and you lose all week. Then, on Sunday, it’s the same thing again.

Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at asset management firm Bitwise, used his March 17 memo to explain why bitcoin tends to drop in moments of financial stress—even though it’s considered a hedge. Drawing from research by his colleague Juan Leon, Hougan noted that when the S&P 500 falls by more than 2% in a single day, bitcoin tends to perform even worse, declining about 2.6% on average. “But Juan’s research showed something else: If you had stayed invested—or bought more after the pullback—you would have done very well. On average, in the year following these sharp pullbacks, bitcoin rose a shocking 190%, dramatically outperforming every other asset,” Hougan said. Describing the trend, he stated: I call this pattern ‘Dip Then Rip,’ and historically it’s one of the most consistent patterns in crypto. Hougan suggested this behavior stems from how investors determine asset values using future expectations and risk assumptions—principles borrowed from discounted cash flow analysis. While bitcoin lacks cash flows, he applied a similar model based on projected value and discount rates. He explained: At Bitwise, for instance, we think bitcoin will be worth $1 million in 2029. “So, you might ask, what do we think it’s worth today? It depends on the discount factor—that is, the risk you assign it. If you discount back at 50% a year, the net present value is $218,604. If you use a 75% discount rate, the net present value is $122,633,” the executive detailed. Hougan emphasized that geopolitical disruptions like tariffs can temporarily elevate risk perception, raising the discount rate and lowering bitcoin’s near-term valuation—even if the long-term forecast improves. To illustrate the latest drop in prices triggered by tariff fears, Hougan cited a comment from crypto services firm NYDIG: “What does bitcoin have to do with tariff wars? Nothing, other than it’s a highly liquid, globally available asset that trades 24/7. If anything, bitcoin stands to benefit from the rise in global entropy, the political and economic disorder created by the administration.” For Hougan, such market turbulence may present a strategic opening. He concluded: If you’re a long-term investor, these short-term spikes in the discount factor are a chance to get in at a discount. From where I sit, I’ve never been more bullish. 免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。

💎 One of the highest R:R projects rn in my pf, that never stopped working (actually thrived in middle of chaos), and is imo gearing for up for a huge reversal is $BIAI - and all the signs are there! 🔥 The hottest chain right now, #BSC is gonna be supported real soon with the BEST copy-trading solution in the entire market! Just take a look at the second image below: #BSC is significantly outperforming every chain in volume right now, and $BIAI is there where the volume/money is at! After speaking to the dev, I got it confirmed that the cutting-edge copy trading tools of $BIAI are gonna be fully supporting the gems that launch in #BSC chain! 📊 Clear consistency of wins: the other day I posted a clean and transparent video of showing how many bangers and what an insane nitrate $BIAI had in March, even tho whole markets were dumping.

TRON founder Justin Sun has shared his thoughts about potentially reducing TRX block rewards, drawing parallels to Bitcoin’s halving mechanism. In a recent tweet, Sun shared his thoughts on implementing a reward reduction for Tron ( TRX ). He noted that the cryptocurrency is already deflationary, with supply decreasing by 1% annually. This makes TRX “the only deflationary asset among major cryptocurrencies,” according to Sun. “This discussion about TRX’s upcoming reduction in block rewards is worth paying attention to! Will TRX follow Bitcoin’s path and enter a halving cycle?” Sun wrote on X. He also compared the potential change as an evolution similar to Bitcoin’s development. Sun explained that as Bitcoin’s ( BTC ) network matured and its price increased, block rewards were gradually reduced through the halving mechanism. He suggested that TRON could follow a comparable path, noting that the rising TRX price has increased rewards for block-producing nodes across the network. The proposal , formally submitted on GitHub as “Reduce TRX block rewards #738,” outlines several potential scenarios. Reducing 1 million TRX in daily block rewards would increase the deflation rate by 50% to 1.5% per year. At the same time, a 2 million TRX reduction would double the deflation rate to 2% annually, creating an impact “comparable to Bitcoin’s halving.” The GitHub proposal also mentions multiple benefits of implementing such changes. This includes better deflation, increased staking incentives, strengthened network security, and improved economic alignment. “Timely adjustments to TRX block rewards can better promote the healthy and sustainable development of the TRON network and TRON ecosystem,” the proposal states. Unlike Bitcoin’s automated halving mechanism that cuts rewards by 50% approximately every four years, TRX’s proposed reduction would be implemented through community governance. “Ultimately, this decision rests with the TRX community!” Sun emphasized. Sun highlighted that even with reduced block rewards, “the current incentives for network validators remain highly attractive.”