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$ETH Ethereum's native token, Ether (ETH), has repeatedly entered oversold territory against Bitcoin (BTC) in recent months, yet it has not shown signs of establishing a price bottom. The current trading scenario mirrors a previous pattern, suggesting that ETH's market structure might repeat itself in the second and third quarters of this year. The relative strength index (RSI) for ETH on a three-day timeframe remains below 30, typically indicating a potential price bounce. However, historical trends reveal that previous dips into oversold conditions have not marked a definitive bottom, with each occurrence followed by further declines, indicating persistent bearish momentum. Since mid-2024, the ETH/BTC pair has experienced multiple breakdowns, with losses of approximately 13%, 21%, 25%, and 19.5% in quick succession. Additionally, the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) are trending downward, confirming the absence of bullish strength. Market analyst @mianikramullah has pointed out ETH's negative price performance, noting that the ETH/BTC pair has failed to confirm a bullish divergence on its weekly chart, where the price makes lower lows but the RSI makes higher lows. The ongoing ETH/BTC downtrend is notable when compared to the broader crypto market, including persistent outflows from US-based spot ETH ETFs and negative onchain data. Net flows into spot Ether ETFs dropped 9.8% in March to $2.54 billion, while spot Bitcoin ETF net flows decreased by 2.35% to $35.74 billion during the same period. Meanwhile, Ethereum's gas fees, measured by daily median gas consumption on the mainnet, were around 1.12 GWEI as of March, a significant decrease from the previous year. Despite a second rally in ETH prices towards the end of 2024, mainnet activity, as measured by gas consumption, did not fully recover. Data analytics platform noted that much of the activity has shifted to Solana and Layer 2 solutions over 2024. market remains cautiously bearish on ETH due to its unfavorable risk/reward ratio compared to Bitcoin and lower-valued altcoins with niche market focus. The ETH/BTC pair is forming a bear pennant pattern on the daily chart, characterized by consolidation within converging trendlines following a steep decline. A bear pennant typically resolves when the price drops below the lower trendline, potentially leading to a 15% decrease from current levels. The 50-day and 200-day EMAs continue their downward trajectory, with the ETH/BTC pair trading well below these key levels, indicating a persistent bear market structure. Despite the downside risk, a bullish invalidation could occur if ETH/BTC breaks above the pennant's upper resistance and turns the 50-day EMA into support.$BTC

Stop trying to time the bottom. The biggest altcoin opportunities are coming, but only if you follow ONE buy rule. Ignore this, and you'll regret it. The worst mistake that traders/investors make during market conditions like this is trying to time the bottom. No one knows when the bottom is in, just like no one knows when the top is in. So instead of gambling, implement a framework that allows you to take less risk, whilst maintaining exposure to the upside when the market turns. Here's mine. It revolves around the 3 key trends: 1. Downtrend (current PA) 2. Accumulation/sideways trends 3. Uptrend Before I get into an analysis of each one, I want to make the distinction between the broader market trend (BTC) and specific alts. Obviously there is going to be heavy overlap with the broader trend, but this article is focused on how I'm playing specific altcoin PA. DOWNTREND This is the current trend we're in. You want to AVOID buying here. The issue with downtrends, is you have no idea when they're going to end. So even if you buy every dip, your cost basis can end up being quite high if the market keeps dipping. This is ok for coins that you have extremely high conviction in, that you think will inevitably end up coming back at some point. However, you have to be very careful with this - as you need extreme mental fortitude to manage being underwater for extended periods of time. Personally, I don't like being underwater - so the alts I'm currently DCAing into are extremely limited. For the rest, I'm following the next 2 phases (accumulation + uptrend).👇 ACCUMULATION Once price starts to settle, this is a sign of seller exhaustion. If price continuously respects a particular level (forming a range low), you can bid this level and cut below if needed (invalidation). Many alts won't even go through accumulation. We're seeing a market-wide cleanse, where some alts will die as they fail to find a floor. If an altcoin DOES show signs of finding a floor, it's a good sign (albeit not foolproof), that it has a higher likelihood of making a comeback during an up-trending market. UPTREND Generally speaking, this is the "safest" time to buy an altcoin. The hardest part is getting the right execution and not FOMOing into pumps. You still want to maintain clear invalidations. Once structure shifts from bearish (downtrend) to bullish (uptrend), you have 2 options. 1. Get in on a break of structure (clearing the prior range high), or 2. Buy pullbacks (bullish continuation with invalidations below prior lows). It's better to cut quick on the confirmation of a lower low, and get back in on a new confirmed uptrend, than running the risk of exposing yourself to further downside. In principle, all this sounds simple, but you do need a basic knowledge of how to read price action and execute. And importantly, the mental fortitude to stick to a plan. Most people fail because they get too emotional and are unable to execute their intended strategy. Like and Follow For More.

Crypto wealth manager Xapo Banks is offering U.S. dollar loans backed by Bitcoin to expand liquidity options for customers. Gibraltar-based Xapo Bank has introduced Bitcoin-backed ( BTC ) USD loans to discourage BTC selling and provide flexible liquidity pathways for its eligible customers. Xapo Bank users can access up to $1 million in credit by offering their Bitcoin as collateral. Clients will have up to a year to repay the loan, depending on the loan size, and can receive as much as 40% of their BTC’s value in U.S. dollars. According to the company, which primarily focuses on BTC custody, customers often liquidate crypto holdings first during market uncertainty. This pattern adds to existing sell pressure and ultimately hampers the largest cryptocurrency by market cap. Offering BTC-backed U.S. dollar loans aims to encourage long-term BTC holding while providing quick liquidity when needed. In 2022, crypto-native lenders like BlockFi and Celsius promised similar products. However, both companies ultimately failed to deliver and were later found to have falsified financial records to stay afloat. Their collapse contributed to a prolonged bear market, shaking confidence in crypto lenders. Yet, while firms like BlockFi and Celsius were regulated entities, Xapo operates as a fully licensed bank with a similar structure to traditional institutions. As such, the stark difference may produce different results in Xapo’s case. In other news, Xapo Bank teamed up with trading firm Hilbert Group in August 2024 to launch a $200 million Bitcoin fund. In 2023, Xapo Bank also expanded its crypto suite, allowing clients to buy tokens like Ethereum ( ETH ) and Cardadon ( ADA ).

S&P500 Channel Down broken. Will the 4H MA50 sustain an uptrend? The S&P500 index (SPX) broke above both its 1-month Channel Down and 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) yesterday and more importantly is so far keeping the price action sideways above it. This is an indication that it may flip it from previously a Resistance, into Support. The signal for this bullish trend reversal came first (and a very timely one) by the 4H RSI, which formed Higher Lows against the price's Lower Lows on March 13, a clear Bullish Divergence. That turned out to be the bottom. Now that bullish break-out has been confirmed, we expect a quick test of the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. Our short-term Target is 5900.