Bitcoin Price Dips Below Major Averages—Crash or Recovery Ahead?
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently teetering on a crucial edge, with price action signaling potential for either a sharp breakdown or a decisive rebound. As we close out March 2025, the crypto market appears tense—investors are watching the charts closely, looking for confirmation. Let’s dig into what’s unfolding on the Bitcoin price daily chart, interpret the technical indicators, and try to answer the burning question—what’s next for BTC?
From the daily Heikin Ashi candlesticks, it’s evident that Bitcoin has been stuck in a sluggish drift since mid-March. The current price sits at around $81,868, with red candles gaining dominance, indicating selling pressure. The candles lack long upper wicks, a common trait during consolidations or bearish momentum buildups. The price is now trending below all key moving averages, a technical warning that the bulls are losing grip.
The chart is overlaid with a Moving Average Ribbon featuring SMA 20, 50, 100, and 200. Here's the breakdown:
When Bitcoin price trades below the 200-day SMA, it often signals macro-weakness. The compression of the moving averages above the price suggests a possible "death ribbon" effect, where convergence could lead to a continuation of downside unless bulls step in aggressively.
Below the price chart, the Accumulation/Distribution Line (ADL) provides insight into volume flow. The ADL currently reads 1,588.39, and while it's been recovering from January lows, the last few days show flattening and slight down-tilt. This suggests distribution is beginning to outweigh accumulation again—essentially meaning more traders are offloading BTC than buying.
ADL is a volume-based indicator that tracks the flow of money into or out of an asset. A rising ADL signals accumulation, while a falling or flat one signals distribution. BTC’s current ADL action aligns with the price slipping under key SMAs.
Bitcoin's nearest support lies around the $80,000 psychological level, which has previously acted as a springboard in late January. A breakdown below this level could expose BTC to a deeper retracement toward $75,000 or even $72,000, depending on the velocity of the sell-off. Conversely, if BTC finds support here and volume picks up, it might test the 200 SMA again at ~$86,000.
This zone is absolutely crucial. It’s not just a technical level but also a sentiment trigger. A bounce here could reignite bullish interest—while a break might spiral into FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt).
For bulls to regain control, they need to push BTC price back above the 20-day and 50-day SMAs , turning them into support. That means a daily close above $88,500 would be an early sign of strength. But more than that, it will take volume confirmation and a visible uptick in the ADL to support any upward momentum.
If that happens, BTC price could re-attempt a rally back toward $93,000+, and reclaiming the 100 SMA could open doors for retesting all-time highs.
Given the current trend, short-term bias is tilted bearish, but the structure still holds above key psychological levels. If BTC price closes multiple daily candles below $80,000, we may see accelerated selling. However, if it holds and bounces with volume confirmation, we could witness an April surprise rally.
Short-Term Bearish Target: $78,000 Neutral Zone: $80,000–$86,000 Bullish Breakout Target: $93,000+
Bitcoin price is approaching a pivotal moment . With daily candles closing below major moving averages and volume trends cooling off, cautious sentiment is warranted. Yet crypto often thrives in uncertainty—and a sudden reversal is always on the table. For now, traders should monitor the $80K level like a hawk and prepare for volatility in either direction as April begins.
XRP Funding Rate Dips to Historic Lows as Traders Eye Short Squeeze Potential
XRP’s funding rate has dropped to negative 0.012%, a level last seen when the asset traded near $0.33. Despite this indicator often associated with bearish pressure, XRP currently holds above the key $2.10 support level.
Popular crypto analyst CryptoinsightUK pointed out this similarity in a tweet, noting that traders appear hesitant, with open interest remaining low. If bullish momentum builds, a short squeeze could drive the next price surge.
CryptoinsightUK shared a chart highlighting that XRP’s funding rate sits at historic lows. Funding rates indicate the cost required to hold leveraged positions in perpetual futures contracts. Negative rates typically suggest that short positions (bets on price decline) dominate the market, as shorts must pay longs.
Related: Top Analyst Identifies Technical Pattern to Drive XRP Prices to $4.60
From the chart, XRP OI stands near 591 million coins (worth approximately $1.18 billion), a relatively low figure compared to past peaks during strong trends. This low OI signals that many traders likely await a clearer market direction before committing substantial capital.
Spot market volume also remains subdued, recorded near 107 million coins daily, further indicating caution among participants. XRP’s price reflected this broader pressure, dropping 14.5% over the past week.
The latest data from Coinglass reveals that XRP’s derivatives market has seen its volume declining by 17.62% to $7.12 billion and open interest dropping by 3.67% to $3.56 billion.
However, options volume has surged by 120.23%, reaching $7,500, and options open interest has increased by 146.96%, hitting $983,490.
These figures highlight a mix of declining activity in perpetual futures but growing interest in options, indicating that traders might be positioning for potential volatility.
A potential short squeeze remains a key scenario. If XRP experiences upward momentum, traders with short positions may be forced to buy back at higher prices, accelerating a breakout. This pattern has historically led to sharp price increases in the crypto market.
Related: XRP’s Early Pullback After Lawsuit’s End Leaves Users Disappointed
Broader market sentiment remains a critical factor for XRP as well. Its price movement will likely depend significantly on overall crypto market direction and particularly Bitcoin’s performance.
Bitcoin had earlier dipped to $81,000 that triggered related drops in many altcoins, including XRP. This move pushed XRP dangerously close to losing the key $2 psychological support level.
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