Bitcoin’s Low Volatility: A Warning or a Market Shift?
Bitcoin is operating in a nearly critical equilibrium zone. Usually subject to marked fluctuations, the asset has recorded historically low implied volatility in recent days, a situation that intrigues as much as it worries analysts. While markets wait for a strong signal, a well-known figure in the sector, Michael Saylor, suggests a new massive buying movement for his company Strategy. Is the bitcoin market on the brink of an explosive movement? As open interest in BTC futures declines and volatility reaches historical lows, some indicators suggest that a period of high activity could follow.
For several days, the implied volatility of bitcoin has been in free fall. According to data from Glassnode, the volatility indicator realized over one week reached 23.42 %, a level rarely seen. “In four years, it has only been lower a few times: in October 2024 (22.88 %) and in November 2023 (21.35%)”, specifies the on-chain analysis. These levels remind us of those that, historically, preceded major price movements.
Such a situation occurs in a context where bitcoin seems stuck in a narrow range, despite events that could potentially influence its price, such as the recent massive hack of Bybit . Yet, even after this attack, bitcoin finished its session in the same price zone where it has been trading for two weeks, highlighting an unusual inertia for the asset.
If volatility indicators signal a period of calm, other elements might suggest an imminent resurgence of activity. The CEO of Strategy, Michael Saylor, shared on February 23, 2025, on platform X (formerly Twitter) a chart of the company’s bitcoin holdings, an action often associated with massive acquisitions in the past. “I don’t think it reflects everything I did last week,” he stated , suggesting that additional purchases might be underway.
Meanwhile, a decline in open interest for bitcoin futures has been observed, dropping to its lowest level since February 9. Analyst Daan Crypto Trades specifies on February 22, 2025, on the social network X that “a decrease in open interest combined with a stable price can be a good reset, provided the spot market takes over.” In other words, if bitcoin is currently in an accumulation phase, a bullish movement could follow if sufficient buying pressure emerges.
Data suggests that the market is in a waiting phase, but historical precedents show that such periods have often been followed by significant price movements. Glassnode reminds us that prolonged drops in implied volatility have, in the past, preceded “major volatility spikes”, even though the direction of the movement remains uncertain. If accumulation continues and institutional buying confirms, bitcoin could trend upward with a potential target around $100,000, as some observers anticipate. Conversely, if the market fails to find sufficient momentum, a correction could be on the agenda.
Solana ($SOL ) price extends its decline and trades around $160 on Monday after falling over 11% las
Solana ($SOL ) price extends its decline and trades around $160 on Monday after falling over 11% last week. The recent correction in SOL has triggered a wave of over $26 million in liquidations in the last 24 hours and $110 million last week. The technical outlook and funding rate suggest a further pullback targeting the $120 mark.
Solana price dips, wiping over $26 million in the last 24 hours
Solana's price declined almost 11% last week and continued falling on Monday, reaching below $160 in the early European session. This correction has triggered a wave of liquidations, resulting in over $26.25 million in liquidations in the last 24 hours and $110 million last week, according to data from CoinGlass.
Strong liquidations like this could spark Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD) among Solana investors, raising selling pressure and leading to a further decline in SOL price.
Additionally, according to Coinglass's OI-Weighted Funding Rate data, the number of traders betting that the price of Solana will slide further is higher than that anticipating a price increase.
This index is based on the yields of futures contracts, which are weighted by their Open Interest (OI) rates. Generally, a positive rate (longs pay shorts) indicates bullish sentiment, while negative numbers (shorts pay longs) indicate bearishness.
In the case of $SOL , this metric stands at -0.0023%, reflecting a negative rate and indicating that shorts are paying longs. This scenario often signifies bearish sentiment in the market, suggesting potential downward pressure on SOL's price.
Solana Price Forecast: Bears look strong
Solana price has been declining for five consecutive weeks since it reached an all-time high of $295.83 on January 19. Only last week, it crashed by almost 11%. At the start of this week on Monday, SOL continues to trade down, falling below the $160 mark for the first time since early November.
If $SOL continues to correct, it could extend to restest its next daily support at $120.91.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart reads 31, indicating strong bearish momentum still out of oversold levels. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator shows red histograms below its neutral level of zero, indicating a strong bearish trend.
Other bearish signs
Apart from the bearish signs in the technical outlook and on-chain metrics for SOL, the recent news about the LIBRA memecoin and FTX repayments further adds bearish credence.
Last week, the Solana-based meme coin LIBRA made headlines for its alleged ties to the MELANIA token and the involvement of Argentina’s President Javier Milei. This wiped out millions in the chain's market capitalization.
Moreover, during the same period, the defunded crypto exchange FTX started redistributing tokens owed to creditors after its collapse in 2022. The redistribution has also sparked speculation around Solana. This follows FTX's plan to unlock 11.2 million SOL — worth $2.06 billion — on March 1, marking one of the largest token releases from its bankruptcy holdings.
The token unlock could negatively impact SOL's price, potentially fueled by fears of a drawdown by the redistribution plans. While repayments are moving forward, the decision to use older price valuations remains a major point of contention among creditors.
Pi network and its Benifits
$PI Network is a cryptocurrency project that aims to create a decentralized and user-friendly digital currency that can be mined using mobile devices. It was founded by a group of Stanford graduates in 2019 and is still in its development phase. The project allows users to mine Pi coins through a mobile app without consuming significant battery or processing power.
Benefits of Pi Network:
Easy Mining on Mobile – Unlike Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, Pi Network allows users to mine coins using a smartphone without heavy energy consumption.
No Expensive Hardware Needed – Users don’t need to invest in powerful computers or mining rigs.
Decentralization – The network aims to be decentralized, meaning it is not controlled by any central authority.
User-Friendly – The mobile app makes it easy for beginners to participate in cryptocurrency mining.
Potential Future Value – If the project succeeds, Pi coins could have real-world value for transactions and trading.
Strong Community Support – The network has millions of users worldwide, which could drive adoption and demand.
Security and Scalability – Pi Network uses the Stellar Consensus Protocol (SCP) for security and aims to build a scalable blockchain.
Current Status & Concerns
Pi Network is still in development, and its mainnet is not fully open.
The value of Pi Coin is not yet determined since it is not listed on major exchanges.
Some critics argue that the project has not yet provided full transparency about its technology and roadmap.
Would you like to know how to start mining on Pi Network?
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