Harvest Finance narxFARM

US non-farm payrolls rose by 228,000 in March, significantly exceeding the consensus estimate of 135,000 and more than doubling the 100,000 forecast. The report also showed private sector hiring contributing 209,000 jobs, suggesting sustained demand for labor despite ongoing monetary tightening. However, the unemployment rate edged up to 4.2%, in line with forecasts but above February’s 4.1%, highlighting a divergence between job creation and employment absorption. The unemployment rate increased alongside a modest uptick in the labor force participation rate to 62.5% from 62.4%, indicating that more individuals re-entered the workforce but had not yet secured jobs. The household and establishment surveys, which inform these two figures, often diverge due to differing methodologies and sample bases. Wage growth remained steady, with average hourly earnings rising 0.3% month over month and 3.8% year over year. Both figures suggest wage pressures are cooling slightly, offering a potential buffer for inflation concerns. Weekly hours held firm at 34.2. The data prompted a muted yet visible reaction in bitcoin markets. $BTC briefly fell to around $82,000 before rebounding to trade near $82,970 shortly after the release. The initial drop likely reflected algorithmic selling on the unemployment rate uptick, followed by a recovery on stronger-than-expected payroll figures that signaled economic resilience. Market participants will likely interpret the overall report as evidence of labor market rebalancing rather than deterioration. Attention now turns to the Federal Reserve’s response in upcoming meetings.

US non-farm payrolls rose by 228,000 in March, significantly exceeding the consensus estimate of 135,000 and more than doubling the 100,000 forecast. The report also showed private sector hiring contributing 209,000 jobs, suggesting sustained demand for labor despite ongoing monetary tightening. However, the unemployment rate edged up to 4.2%, in line with forecasts but above February’s 4.1%, highlighting a divergence between job creation and employment absorption. The unemployment rate increased alongside a modest uptick in the labor force participation rate to 62.5% from 62.4%, indicating that more individuals re-entered the workforce but had not yet secured jobs. The household and establishment surveys, which inform these two figures, often diverge due to differing methodologies and sample bases. Wage growth remained steady, with average hourly earnings rising 0.3% month over month and 3.8% year over year. Both figures suggest wage pressures are cooling slightly, offering a potential buffer for inflation concerns. Weekly hours held firm at 34.2. The data prompted a muted yet visible reaction in bitcoin markets. $BTC briefly fell to around $82,000 before rebounding to trade near $82,970 shortly after the release. The initial drop likely reflected algorithmic selling on the unemployment rate uptick, followed by a recovery on stronger-than-expected payroll figures that signaled economic resilience. Market participants will likely interpret the overall report as evidence of labor market rebalancing rather than deterioration. Attention now turns to the Federal Reserve’s response in upcoming meetings.

The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report is a key economic indicator in the U.S. that can impact crypto markets indirectly through its effect on the U.S. dollar, interest rates, and investor sentiment. Scenario: Previous NFP: 151K Forecast: 135K If the actual NFP comes in lower than the previous (151K) and around or below the forecast (135K), here's what it could mean: 1. Weaker Labor Market This suggests the U.S. job market is cooling down, which could: Push the Federal Reserve to pause or cut interest rates sooner. Lead to a weaker U.S. dollar. 2. Impact on Crypto A weaker dollar and lower interest rate expectations often make risk assets like crypto more attractive. So if the market interprets the NFP as soft: It could be bullish for Bitcoin and crypto overall. Buy pressure may increase on major coins. But... It also depends on: How much below or above forecast the actual NFP comes in. Market expectations beyond the forecast. Fed comments following the report. Summary: If the actual NFP is around or below 135K, especially well below 151K, and markets interpret it as dovish, it could be a buying opportunity for crypto. But if it’s much stronger than expected, it may cause a short-term pullback due to fears of rate hikes.

Dogecoin Market Update: Technical Reversal and Uncertainty Ahead Dogecoin has seen a positive technical recovery this morning, despite the volatility and bearish pressure in the broader market. Yesterday, we witnessed some uncertainty as stock markets experienced one of their worst days in the past year, which contributed to overall market instability. Technical Analysis: Dogecoin found a major support zone between 16.1 and 16.5, where we saw a fakeout below the support level. However, this morning, Dogecoin managed to reclaim this key support zone, signaling a positive technical outlook. We are now trading within the range of 16.4 to 17.8, with the most likely target being a move towards 17.6 if the bullish momentum continues. Correlation with Bitcoin: Bitcoin’s strength today is also fueling Dogecoin’s performance. Over the last three days, Dogecoin has shown an 85.8% correlation with Bitcoin, indicating that Bitcoin's moves are strongly influencing Dogecoin’s price action. Bitcoin is at resistance but remains strong, which is encouraging for Dogecoin. Risks and Volatility Ahead: Despite the positive technical outlook, there are risks to consider. The market remains volatile, especially with upcoming economic data like unemployment rates and non-farm payrolls. If stock markets continue to perform poorly or Bitcoin struggles to break resistance, there could be a double fakeout and a potential price drop for Dogecoin. Conclusion: While the short-term outlook for Dogecoin is positive, volatility remains high, and external factors such as stock market movements and economic data could change the picture quickly. Keep an eye on the news and be prepared for potential changes in direction. $BTC $DOGE

Solana’s native token, SOL, could be in for a nearly 6% price swing after several large holders—often referred to as whales—began unloading massive amounts of their holdings just ahead of the upcoming U.S. jobs report. Over $46 million worth of SOL was sold in a short time frame. One wallet moved more than $30 million in tokens, while others offloaded millions more. These transactions appear to have triggered a sharp drop, with SOL falling from $117.25 to $108.50 within just two hours—a 7.5% slide. Despite this, the total sold represents less than 1% of SOL’s daily trading volume, which may help soften the impact. Still, the timing is raising eyebrows. The U.S. non-farm payroll report often stirs market-wide reactions, including in the crypto space, so some investors are clearly positioning ahead of it. Right now, SOL is trading around $119, showing slight signs of recovery. But with market uncertainty and macroeconomic data looming, more volatility could be on the way. If you’re holding SOL or thinking of jumping in, it might be a good moment to stay alert. Large moves like these from whales often hint at underlying sentiment, and when paired with major economic events, the result can be sharp market swings. $SOL