Курс XX

Everyone’s waiting for the FED to save the markets. Whether it’s through emergency rate cuts or fresh QE, investors are glued to Powell’s every move. But what if the next major rally won’t come from the US at all? In fact, it’s already quietly brewing in Asia—and if you’re not paying attention to what's happening in China and Japan, you might completely miss the first wave of global liquidity. Markets Have Been in Panic Since April 2nd Since April 2nd, the global economy has entered full panic mode: 🔹 Global stocks, bonds, commodities, and crypto are all falling 🔹 US stocks alone have lost over $8 trillion in market cap 🔹 Bond yields, which should be dropping in such an environment, are actually rising The 10-year US Treasury yield is now 18 basis points (0.18%) higher than on “Liberation Day,” despite the enormous risk-off sentiment across the board. Why Are Bond Yields Rising Amid a Market Crash? There are two big drivers behind the unexpected rise in yields: 🔹 China Dumping T-Bills 🔹 China has sold nearly $50 billion in US Treasuries in recent weeks 🔹 This mass liquidation pushed bond prices down and yields up 🔹 The reason may be retaliation in the ongoing trade war—or an effort to raise USD liquidity 🔹 China still holds around $700 billion in US Treasuries, so more selling could follow 🔹 Basis Trade Blow-Up 🔹 Hedge funds have been using the “basis trade,” a leveraged arbitrage strategy between Treasury futures and cash bonds 🔹 These trades are often levered 50x to 100x, so they’re highly sensitive to market swings 🔹 Trump’s new tariffs triggered a market crash, forcing funds to raise cash 🔹 Many hedge funds are facing margin calls and are selling bonds to survive 🔹 This massive unwinding is further flooding the market and driving yields up 🔹 The notional size of these trades is estimated at $1.8T to $2T The result? An environment where yields rise despite a flight to safety, making it harder for the FED to act without worsening the situation. What If the FED Does Nothing? Let’s consider the possibility that the FED won’t announce any emergency cuts or QE. Does that mean crypto is doomed to bleed? Actually, no—and here’s where Asia enters the picture. China Is Already Devaluing the Yuan On April 8th, China’s central bank (PBOC) set the yuan’s daily reference rate at 7.2038 per USD, signaling a clear intent to weaken the currency. 🔹 The yuan is allowed to fluctuate within a 2% band around the midpoint 🔹 Breaking above the 7.2 level shows that the PBOC is encouraging further weakness Why would China want a weaker yuan? 🔹 1. Boosting Exports 🔹 A devalued yuan makes Chinese products cheaper in dollar terms 🔹 Example: If a toy costs 20 yuan to make   • At 1 yuan = 1 USD → it sells for $20   • At 1 yuan = 0.5 USD → it sells for $10 🔹 Result: Chinese exports become more attractive globally 🔹 2. Inflating Away Debt 🔹 As of 2023, China’s total debt (including non-financial sectors) is 285% of GDP 🔹 Currency devaluation reduces the real value of outstanding debt 🔹 It’s a strategic move to lighten the debt burden without defaulting How This Helps Crypto If the FED won’t cut rates or inject liquidity, why should crypto pump? Because Asia is about to unleash its own liquidity wave, just like it did in the past. During the 2016–2017 bull market: 🔹 The FED was raising rates, not cutting 🔹 The FED began a QT program in Sept 2017 🔹 Still, BTC rose from $200 to $20,000 🔹 Altcoins exploded with 100x–500x gains What caused the rally? 🔹 China’s yuan devaluation in Q3 2015 🔹 Europe’s massive QE program History is rhyming, and this time it’s China and Japan leading the charge. Massive Capital Sitting in China China has enormous capital reserves that could start to move as the yuan weakens: 🔹 As of January 2025, total deposits in China are $42.3 trillion 🔹 In comparison, the US has $17.93 trillion in deposits 🔹 China’s state-owned banks alone hold over $20 trillion USD equivalent in deposits During a currency devaluation, capital tends to flow into global assets to preserve value. 🔹 Despite capital controls, crypto offers a borderless, fast, and secure option 🔹 That’s why crypto will likely become one of the biggest beneficiaries of Chinese capital flight Japan May Be the First to Announce QE After the recent market open, the Bank of Japan held a three-way emergency meeting with: 🔹 Ministry of Finance 🔹 Financial Services Agency 🔹 Bank of Japan The discussion likely focused on: 🔹 The collapsing Japanese stock market 🔹 Surging bond yields 🔹 Risk of a yen carry trade crisis Conclusion? 🔹 Japan may be the first major economy to pivot with rate cuts and QE 🔹 In 2017, it was Europe and China fueling the bull market 🔹 In 2025, it’ll be China and Japan Conclusion: Liquidity Is Coming—But Not From Where You Expect The world is watching the FED. But while Powell stays cautious, Asia is already moving. 🔹 China has imposed 84% tariffs on US goods 🔹 Trade wars are intensifying 🔹 Capital is fleeing from Asia’s weakening currencies 🔹 The BOJ is preparing to inject liquidity 🔹 Crypto remains the best vehicle for cross-border wealth preservation Don’t wait for a press conference from the FED. The liquidity wave is coming—from Shanghai and Tokyo, not Washington. Until then, ride out the storm like a true memecoin degenerate and stay ready for the signal that starts the next big crypto run.

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X/USDT Have to buy 165000 X coins Last budget was 12.14 $

What’s Happening Now The crypto market’s showing signs of life today. Ethereum ($ETH ) has climbed back above $1,600, and sectors like AI tokens are surging—up 15.82% according to posts on X. Memecoins, DeFi, and projects like HYPE, HBAR, and SHIB are also bouncing, possibly due to easing tariff worries after Trump’s recent policy shifts. Bitcoin ($BTC ) is holding above key support levels (around $78,000-$80,000 lately), and some analysts are optimistic, with Bitwise’s CIO suggesting it could hit new highs once volatility settles. Sentiment’s been grim—lowest since early 2023—but metrics like the Fear & Greed Index hint at a potential “risk-on” shift. So, the rebound’s real, but it’s early. Buy Now? Case for Buying: • Momentum: ETH breaking $1,600 and AI/DeFi gains suggest capital’s flowing back in. Altcoins often follow BTC, which is showing resilience despite stock market jitters. • Catalysts: The SEC approving options trading on spot ETH ETFs is a big deal—more institutional money could pour in. Plus, China and Russia reportedly using BTC for energy trades signals adoption. • Sentiment Shift: Oversold conditions (like Stochastic RSI readings mentioned in some analyses) often precede rallies. If BTC holds $78K-$80K, it could climb toward $90K, as some predict. • Historical Trends: March-April can be choppy, but Q2 sometimes sees recovery post-corrections, especially if macro fears (tariffs, Fed rates) cool off. Risks: • Volatility: This rebound follows a rough Q1—BTC down 11.82%, ETH down 45.41% through March per recent recaps. Trump’s tariffs (set to hit April 2) spooked markets, and a 16% BTC drop in 2025 so far shows it’s not immune. • Uncertainty: Fed Chair Powell’s “wait-and-see” on rate cuts could keep pressure on risk assets. If equities tank further, crypto might follow. • False Starts: A “relief rally” (BTC at $78K today) doesn’t guarantee a sustained uptrend. Liquidations could trigger if it’s just a dead-cat bounce. Wait? Case for Waiting: • Confirmation Needed: Rebounds can fizzle. Analysts suggest waiting for BTC to clear $90K or ETH to hold above $2,000 consistently—daily closes above key levels (e.g., $3,150 for ETH) would signal strength. • Macro Headwinds: Trump’s trade policies and Fed rate decisions are wildcards. A global recession scare could drag crypto down again, especially if ETF outflows resume. • Better Entry: If this is a correction within a larger downtrend (post-halving maturation), prices could dip lower—like BTC to $68K or ETH to $1,400—offering a cheaper buy-in. • Overbought Risk: If leverage spikes (funding rates rising, as some note), a pullback’s more likely after this initial pop. Risks of Waiting: • Missed Gains: Altcoins can 20x in surges (experts on X float this for BTC, ETH, XRP). If BTC hits $100K+ by mid-2025 (as some predict), waiting could cost you. • FOMO: Institutional FOMO from ETFs or Trump’s crypto-friendly admin might accelerate this rally faster than expected. What’s the Move? It depends on your risk appetite and strategy: • Aggressive: Buy now, but small—dip your toes with ETH (at $1,600) or BTC (around $78K-$81K). Altcoins like SOL or XRP could also pop if ETF news progresses. Set stop-losses below support ($74K for BTC, $1,400 for ETH) to limit downside. • Cautious: Wait for confirmation—BTC above $90K or ETH reclaiming $2,000 with volume. Watch April 12’s CPI data; bearish inflation could tank it, while dovish Fed hints might juice it. • Middle Ground: Dollar-cost average (DCA). Spread buys over days/weeks to hedge volatility. Start light now, add if the rebound sticks. My Take The rebound’s got legs—adoption signals and technicals lean bullish—but it’s fragile. Trump’s tariff “flexibility” and Powell’s dovish tilt (per 10x Research) could fuel it, but Q1’s bloodbath proves nothing’s certain. I’d DCA a bit now (BTC or ETH), then wait for a clearer trend. Keep an eye on X for real-time sentiment and tariff updates—they’ll move the needle fast. What’s your gut telling you??! Comment 👇

The Czech government lowered its forecast for economic growth because it anticipated that companies would reduce investment due to the risks associated with U.S. tariffs. The Finance Ministry now projects a 2% GDP increase in 2025, down from the earlier 2.3% estimate. Officials noted that weak exports are slowing overall growth, while household spending remains the main driver of expansion. The updated forecast accounts for the impact of previous U.S. tariffs on EU automobile, steel, and aluminum exports but does not factor in President Donald Trump’s more recently announced and subsequently suspended tariffs. A chief economist of the Finance Ministry, David Prusvic, predicted that the uncertain status of international trade will negatively impact corporate spending plans in one of Europe’s most export-dependent economies. Furthermore, in line with reports from sources, Prusvic clarified that their companies’ investment strategies were based on domestic and international economic trends, especially those in the euro area. Meanwhile, the Czech Republic’s primary industries are auto parts and automobile manufacturing, with exports to the EU accounting for around 80% of the nation’s GDP. However, investors are worried about the fate of Trump’s recent tariffs. The Finance Ministry’s recent findings make the situation even worse. According to the ministry, Czech economic growth could drop further to around 1.6% this year if those tariffs are implemented. While the full impact remains uncertain, the ministry suggested that Germany’s proposed fiscal stimulus—given its role as the Czech Republic’s largest export destination—could offer some relief. As Central Europe started calculating the probable costs of a trade war, leaders in the Czech Republic and Poland indicated that they were prepared to retaliate against new U.S. tariffs on April 3, while Hungary, a country in Europe, accused Brussels, the capital city of Belgium, of causing tensions with Washington. Furthermore, Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, called the U.S. President Donald Trump’s universal tariffs a serious setback to the global economy and stated that the 27-member bloc was ready to retaliate with countermeasures if negotiations with Washington broke down. This came after Trump’s remarks caused Central Europe’s stock markets and currencies to drop sharply. The Czech crown was hardest hit as it dropped past the crucial 25 per euro mark in early trading before reducing its losses gradually by making adjustments to minimize the negative impact of the situation. In response, on the social media X platform, Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala posted that having no tariffs was the best option. However, the two parties needed to be willing to agree. He highlighted that Europe was ready to engage in dialogue with the United States, but at the same time, it was prepared to respond clearly. Even though Poland was less vulnerable to risk because of its sizable domestic market and decreased reliance on auto exports, Donald Tusk, the prime minister of Poland, declared that the U.S. decision would slow economic growth and that appropriate decisions on reciprocal tariffs were required. Tusk elaborated on his X account that a preliminary assessment estimated that new U.S. tariffs might decrease Polish GDP by 0.4%. Even under conservative projections, losses are expected to surpass 10 billion zlotys (approximately $2.63 billion). Around 20% to 30% of Central Europe’s exports—largely automobiles—go to Germany, highlighting the region’s deep ties to car manufacturing. According to S&P Global, the new U.S. trade measures threaten to further dampen growth prospects across Central Europe. Last month, the Czech Automotive Industry Association said that its export-oriented auto industry might still suffer despite the Czech Republic having relatively little direct exposure to United States sales. The Czech Automotive Industry said in a statement that the tariff increase announced would “massively” affect many Czech parts and services suppliers, especially those that supply customers in Germany. This would result in a major loss of orders and fewer export opportunities. Erste Group economists warned that Slovakia could experience an even sharper impact, with the cumulative effect of the tariffs potentially shaving 1.5 percentage points off its GDP over the next three years. Cryptopolitan Academy: Coming Soon - A New Way to Earn Passive Income with DeFi in 2025. Learn More