Bitcoin’s Short-Term Holders Signal a Big Move as Market Shifts

• Short-term Bitcoin holders are growing and this often leads to strong market moves.
• Long-term holders are steady and their actions will decide the next trend.
• If traders start selling fast Bitcoin could see big price changes in the coming weeks.

Bitcoin’s short-term holders (STH) are at a pivotal moment, as revealed by the latest BTC HODL Waves chart shared by Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse). The data highlights a clear historical pattern: when the share of short-term holders—those holding BTC for less than six months—peaks and starts to decline, Bitcoin often enters a phase of heightened volatility. The current structure of the market suggests that BTC might be nearing a crucial shift, with its price hovering near all-time highs. 

BTC HODL Waves Reveal Market Behavior

The BTC HODL Waves graph allows traders to observe the price movements of Bitcoin against the distribution of coins held for varying amounts of time. The white line indicates Bitcoin’s price, which has risen from pennies in 2009 to almost $70,000 in 2024, while the color bands represent percentages of BTC held for varying lengths.

Therefore, as of now, most of the supply is comprised of short-term holders, represented by the red, orange, and yellow bands, which cover holders from less than a day to six months. Similar patterns emerged during previous bull market peaks such as 2013, 2017, and 2021, which saw short-term holder increases as Bitcoin hit significant highs before corrections followed.

Long-Term Holders Remain Resilient

Although short-term trading activity has started to increase, long-term holders-BTC holders for more than one year-remain solid in their position. The yellow to green bands, which signify holders having between one year and ten years, continue to hold the upper hand. In the past, when these holders started selling into strength, it marked the distribution phase in a cycle. Their toughness so far indicates that the market still has a space to run before a big sell-off occurs.

Interestingly, the more-than 10-year holder population is holding quite steady, indicating that some of the early adopters and also institutional investors are still holding theirs regardless of the price. The true conviction, which reads that the asset holds true value over the longer term, persists despite the lure of speculative traders coming into the market.

What’s Next for Bitcoin?

If historical patterns hold, Bitcoin’s short-term holder dominance could act as a warning sign for increased volatility. A surge in STH supply typically precedes market corrections, as newer investors tend to sell when sentiment shifts. However, if long-term holders continue to hold firm, BTC could still have enough strength to push towards new highs before a cooling-off period begins.