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Standard Chartered says institutional investors could punt bitcoin to $200,000 but curb intensity of altcoin season

Standard Chartered says institutional investors could punt bitcoin to $200,000 but curb intensity of altcoin season

The BlockThe Block2025/01/23 13:01
By:Brian McGleenon

Institutional investors are expected to moderate the intensity of any upcoming altcoin season by favoring bitcoin and ether, potentially driving their prices to new highs, an analyst said.This, coupled with the introduction of innovative investment products like buffered ETFs, signals a maturing crypto market where institutional influence plays a key role.

Standard Chartered says institutional investors could punt bitcoin to $200,000 but curb intensity of altcoin season image 0

Institutional investors could boost the prices of bitcoin and ether while potentially moderating the intensity of any upcoming altcoin season , according to Standard Chartered Global Head of Digital Assets Research Geoff Kendrick. 

"The dominance of institutional inflows to ETFs is likely to support bitcoin and ether performance; we see their prices reaching the $200,000 and $10,000 levels by end-2025, respectively," he said in an email. "We expect institutional flows into bitcoin in 2025 to exceed 2024 levels, with fresh capital likely to come from long-only funds classified as ‘pension funds.'"

Following this, capital might flow into altcoins but it could be weaker than normal, he argued. "An altcoin light season will begin, and I say light because institutional flows will drive bitcoin and ether, partly offsetting rotation into alts," Kendrick noted.

However, the launch of the Official Trump (TRUMP) memecoin at the weekend could be a catalyst that might drive a new altcoin season, according to QCP Capital analysts. "The global reach and speed at which TRUMP surged signal a paradigm shift in capital formation as crypto becomes increasingly mainstream, and this be the catalyst that drives the anticipated altcoin season," the analysts said.

Calamos bitcoin ETFs' influence on options market

The launch on Wednesday of Calamos buffered spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has introduced another layer of institutional influence on the crypto market. These ETFs employ options-based strategies to limit downside risk while also capping upside potential.

Cryptocurrency derivatives trader Gordon Grant shed light on how these ETFs are impacting bitcoin's options market. "There's an interesting kink with the end-of-January expiry, elevated above the Feb. 7 and Feb. 28 expiries, in particularly on the calls side, which could be in part due to an increase in February puts," Grant told The Block.

He explained that the hedging and structuring activities associated with these ETFs are influencing bitcoin options markets, creating unique patterns in open interest by depressing the call skew.

"Because of the new buffered ETFs being launched by Calamos, collaring can be expected to show up in options open interest, and as long as it is tied to new ETF creations, it is not on net effect bearish, but it can depress the call skew depending on the point in the term structure," Grant added.

Bitcoin's growing acceptance as an investible asset

While bitcoin's options market shows some caution with an increased put-call skew, Calamos Head of ETFs Matt Kaufman remains optimistic about the digital asset's future as an investment asset. He highlighted the growing acceptance of bitcoin, while acknowledging concerns about its volatility.

"Bitcoin’s acceptance as an investible asset is growing, yet concerns about its volatility remain," Kaufman said. "Our new suite of downside protected Bitcoin ETFs will offer a menu of straightforward solutions designed to provide true risk management for this unique asset where investors can select their preferred level of protection and related upside capture based on their specific circumstances.”

The price of bitcoin traded at around $101,626 at publication time, according to The Block's BTC price data , down around 3.8% over the past 24 hours.


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Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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