Bitcoin Nears Key Threshold as Market Sentiment Hangs in the Balance

Analytics firm Glassnode has identified a key threshold for Bitcoin (BTC) that could signal a potential shift in market trends.

They highlight a critical metric: the short-term holder (STH) cost basis, which reflects the average price paid by investors who acquired their BTC within the past 155 days. This metric has historically served as a reliable indicator of market sentiment.

Glassnode notes that Bitcoin’s current price sits approximately 7% above the STH cost basis of $88,135. If BTC falls below this level and stabilizes there, it could point to declining confidence among newer investors—a pattern often associated with the start of bear markets.

At the same time, long-term holders (LTHs)—those who have held BTC for more than 155 days—are offloading their assets at a slower but still significant pace. Glassnode observes that the rate of distribution among LTHs has likely peaked, mirroring extremes seen in past cycles. Importantly, Bitcoin prices have historically continued to rise even after such peaks, suggesting that this activity doesn’t necessarily indicate the end of a bull market.

Glassnode also emphasizes that nearly all long-term holders remain profitable, with no significant losses reported. Historically, widespread losses among LTHs have marked the definitive end of market cycles. For now, the absence of such losses suggests that the current cycle may still have room to grow.