Starmer’s problem go beyond Elon Musk; UK markets are struggling

Keir Starmer’s Labour Party is trying to maintain a sense of optimism despite a turbulent week dominated by Elon Musk’s online “attacks” and a market rout that is testing the UK’s economic stability. Starmer’s team is increasingly concerned about the financial pressures building within the UK economy.

According to a Bloomberg report , Starmer’s allies are focused on the growing risk of a bond selloff, which could have serious implications for the Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves’ economic plans. 

The market turmoil has already led to a surge in bond yields, with the 30-year UK government bond reaching its highest level since 1998. Concerns over the state of UK public finances and weak economic performance have fueled the selloff. 

British government wary of Musk’s interventions

Billionaire Tesla CEO Elon Musk has been waging an online campaign against Sunak and other European leaders, accusing them of failing to act on issues like child sexual exploitation. His public spats with the former UK prime minister have become a political spectacle, with Musk using his social media platform, X, to push his agenda.

Starmer’s allies believe Musk’s interventions may have inadvertently helped them shape the narrative ahead of the next general election. In the eyes of Nigel Farage, Reform UK head, Musk’s vocal criticisms “backfired” following his endorsement of far-right activist Tommy Robinson. 

Nigel Farage responded defiantly to Elon Musk’s criticism, telling Sky News that he “can’t be pushed or bullied” by anyone, even Musk. The Donald Trump ally had earlier declared, “The Reform Party needs a new leader. Farage doesn’t have what it takes.” 

In an interview with Sky’s political correspondent Ali Fortescue, Farage revealed that he had spoken with Musk since the remarks were made, but wouldn’t oblige to share the details of their conversation.

Bond selloff threatens economic stability

Meanwhile, Exchequer Chancellor Reeves, in a recent statement, sought to reassure markets. She said that the UK Treasury’s fiscal pledges had helped prevent an even more severe selloff. “The rise in yields is so far justified,” she said, noting that the situation was not yet a sovereign crisis.

The bond market volatility has forced investors to reconsider their stance on UK debt, raising questions about the long-term sustainability of the country’s fiscal policies. This includes the potential for tax hikes or public spending cuts, both of which could further dampen the UK’s fragile economic growth.

Investor sentiment has been weighed down by persistent inflationary pressures, which are keeping bond yields high. Typically, a rise in yields is seen as a sign of strength for a country’s currency, but in the UK’s case, it has coincided with a sharp decline in the value of the pound. 

Despite the increase in yields, concerns over inflation and fiscal instability have led to capital outflows, exacerbating the currency’s fall.

Matthew Ryan, head of market strategy at Ebury, pointed to the extreme market gyrations, particularly in the gilt market. “Investors are particularly concerned about the outlook for Britain’s economy and the state of public finances,” he said.

This was evident when demand for 30-year gilts was weak during a recent auction, triggering a sharp rise in yields.

Echoes of the 2022 market crisis

The current market turmoil has sparked comparisons to the crisis that followed former Prime Minister Liz Truss’s controversial budget in 2022. Truss’s unfunded tax cuts sent bond yields soaring and caused the pound to plummet, ultimately forcing her resignation. 

The UK economy is once again facing a period of instability, with many analysts concerned that the pressure on government debt could push the country into another crisis.

Nevertheless, some analysts caution that the current situation is not yet as dire as it was during the Truss era. 

“This is more likely just an overreaction to gilts hitting key technical levels,” noted Nick Rees, a currency analyst at Monex Europe. “While the market turmoil is concerning, it is not yet a repeat of the 2022 crisis.“

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