Week 46 On-Chain Data: Short-term BTC in Strong Position, Bull Market Could Extend to Mid Next Year
The market is experiencing brewing short-term volatility, with a potential mild pullback to liquidate derivatives, but market sentiment remains highly positive, making a significant downturn highly unlikely.
Original Article Title: "Have ETF Flows Started to Decline? Has the Market Cooled Down? | WTR11.18"
Original Source: WTR Research Institute
Weekly Review
During this week from November 11th to November 17th, the highest point of Orange Juice was near $93,265, the lowest point was close to $80,216, with a fluctuation range of about 16.27%.
Observing the chip distribution chart, there was a significant volume of chips traded around 86,000, which may provide some support or resistance.
• Analysis:
1. 46.67K chips around 69,000-73,000;
2. 8.87K chips around 74,000-78,000;
• The probability of not breaking below 71,000-74,000 in the short term is 70%;
• The probability of not breaking above 95,000-100,000 in the short term is 60%.
Important News
Economic News
1. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's 13F filing revealed that asset management giant BlackRock continued to increase its holdings in seven US technology giants in the third quarter, including adding 43.4 million shares of Apple, 7.5 million shares of Microsoft, 12.35 million shares of Nvidia, among others. In addition, it increased its holdings in Berkshire Hathaway by 2.59 million shares. BlackRock reported a holding value of $4.76 trillion, up from $4.42 trillion last time.
2. After last week's CPI and PPI inflation indicators slightly exceeded expectations, Powell stated that the economy has not sent "any signal" indicating that the Fed needs to rush to cut interest rates, allowing members to "cautiously" pursue further adjustments.
3. Fed's Bullard: As long as inflation continues to move toward the 2% target, rates will be substantially lower in the next 12 to 18 months.
4. Fed's Collins: Another rate cut in December is clearly under consideration, and there is no urgent need for a rate cut.
5. Fed turns hawkish, traders reduce the probability of a rate cut in December to 61.9%, and maintain a 38.1% probability of unchanged rates.
6. Morgan Stanley economists predict that by the mid-2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield will fall to 3.75%, and will be slightly higher than 3.50% by the end of next year. The Fed will cut rates by 75 basis points in the first half of 2025 (to 3.5-3.75%).
Crypto Ecosystem News
1. A JP Morgan analyst outlined six key regulatory and market changes in the crypto industry under the Trump U.S. government, which could reshape the U.S. cryptocurrency landscape under the Trump administration and its congressional leadership. Several stalled cryptocurrency bills may quickly receive approval.
2. Clearer regulations could increase venture capital, mergers and acquisitions, and initial public offerings in the cryptocurrency space. A strategic BTC reserve could boost BTC's price, but the likelihood of its adoption is low.
3. U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis plans to introduce a bill next year at the start of the new Congress, requiring the U.S. to purchase 1 million BTC. The aim is to fill Trump's proposed strategic BTC reserve without increasing the government's debt by selling some of the Federal Reserve's gold. Based on the current market price, this purchase would cost about $90 billion, but if the bill passes, the required funding may increase.
4. Japanese listed company Metaplanet announced the issuance of ¥1.75 billion in ordinary bonds to purchase BTC. The company currently holds 1018.17 BTC.
5. MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor initiated a poll on Platform X, asking, "Will BTC exceed $100,000 on New Year's Eve?" Currently, 58,608 users have voted, with an approval rate of 85.2%.
6. Decrypt reported that on November 17th, CB surged from 26th place on the U.S. Apple iOS App Store's free finance category to 1st place. Robinhood and Crypto.com, among others, rose to the top 10 in the same category.
7. CryptoQuant analyst MAC.D indicated that within just 10 months, U.S. BTC spot ETF holdings increased from 629,900 BTC to 1,054,500 BTC, accounting for 5.33% of the total supply. There is a strong correlation between the increase in spot ETF holdings and price. If the U.S. considers BTC as a reserve asset in the future, the inflow into spot ETFs will continue to grow.
8. QCP Capital believes that BTC's potential strength represents a systemic shift in the market's expectations of Trump returning to the White House. The target price of $100,000 to $120,000 may not be far off, and the idea of Trump initiating a strategic BTC reserve and switching from gold to BTC provides a strong bullish view that can support BTC's price.
Long-term Insight: Used to observe our long-term situation; Bull Market/Bear Market/Structural Change/Neutral State
Medium-term Exploration: Used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what we will face
Short-term Observation: Used to analyze short-term market conditions; as well as the appearance of certain trends and the likelihood of certain events under certain conditions
Long-term Insight
• ETF Reserve Headroom Change
• Large Exchange Fund Net Transfer
• Long-term Holder Structure
• Long-term vs. Short-term Holder Changes
(Chart of ETF Reserve Headroom Change)
The ETF Headroom Change shows that the intensity of external funding has started to decrease. New chip inflows are starting to decline relatively.
(Chart of Large Exchange Fund Net Transfer)
Exchange fund data shows that large participants are still generating relative buys. Internal strength remains relatively strong.
(Chart of Long-term Holder Structure)
The structure of long-term participants shows that the proportion of long-term participants is further decreasing. When the proportion of long-term participants in the market is low, it can lead to significant market risks.
There is still a certain distance from the oversold state at that time. The structure support is still intact.
(Chart of Long-term vs. Short-term Holder Changes)
The proportion of long-term participants is decreasing, while short-term participants are relatively increasing. It is worth noting that when long-term participants decrease significantly, and short-term participants transition from rising to falling, and long-term participants cannot support more market structure before a certain quantity, it may lead to further market collapse.
Medium-term Exploration
• BTC Exchange Trend Net Headroom
• ETH Exchange Trend Net Headroom
• ETH Exchange Circulation Ratio
• Incremental Model
• Liquidity Supply Amount
• Cost Structure
(Chart of BTC Exchange Trend Net Headroom)
BTC still has a significant outflow, maintaining a relatively accumulation state. There may still be a strong demand for BTC at present, with a relatively higher outflow and a potential lighter selling pressure.
(ETH Exchange Trend Net Flow Chart Below)
ETH is currently experiencing a significant inflow, with the potential current pattern and market pressure focused on the ETH side.
(ETH Exchange Circulation Ratio Chart Below)
There are signs of a slight slowdown in the circulation ratio of ETH, indicating that market participants may be hesitant. If the circulation ratio shifts to a higher ETH concentration, market participants may have a higher risk appetite.
(Incremental Model Chart Below)
The increment is still on the rise, and at the same time, the short-term participants' supply remains in an upward channel. The market may still be considered an incremental market at present.
(Liquidity Supply Chart Below)
The market's liquidity supply is rising again, indicating that participants are still active.
Liquidity supply can improve the efficiency of on-chain exchange chips.
(Cost Structure Chart Below)
From the perspective of cost structure, the market is in the incremental stage, and overall expansion is occurring.
The stock supply has increased from around 73500 to approximately 90000, indicating a stronger market capacity for profit accommodation.
At the same time, the short-term cost is currently around 70000, with the short-term Alpha profit target price at around 88000.
The current increment is distorting the market structure, leading to continuous changes in the cost structure.
The range above 88000-90000 is likely the elevated range currently under close observation.
Short-Term Observation
• Derivative Risk Factor
• Options Intention-To-Trade Ratio
• Derivatives Trading Volume
• Options Implied Volatility
• Profit-Loss Transfer Volume
• New Addresses and Active Addresses
• Sugar Trading Exchange Net Flow
• Whale Trading Exchange Net Flow
• High-Weight Selling Pressure
• Global Buying Power Status
• Stablecoin Exchange Net Flow
• Off-Chain Exchange Data
Derivatives Rating: The risk factor is in the red zone, indicating an increase in derivative risk.
(Derivative Risk Factor Chart)
From the perspective of liquidation volume, the oscillation after the market reached a high has not significantly consumed the long positions' bullish intent. However, the potential liquidation risk is increasing.
(Options Intent Transaction Ratio Chart)
The put options ratio is at a high level, while the trading volume is at a low level.
(Derivative Trading Volume Chart)
The drop in derivative trading volume to a low level indicates that the next price swing may be approaching.
(Options Implied Volatility Chart)
The options implied volatility has not changed significantly.
Sentiment Rating: Greed
(Profit and Loss Transfer Amount Chart)
The positive market attribute is at a new high for the year, but post-peak positive sentiment has slightly decreased. However, this decrease has not led to a rapid market decline, indicating that there is still a considerable amount of buying interest in the short term.
(New and Active Addresses Chart)
New and active addresses are at extremely high levels.
Spot and selling pressure structure rating: BTC and ETH divergence, BTC outflow accumulation, ETH inflow accumulation.
(Bitcoin Exchange Netflow Chart)
BTC outflow accumulation.
(Ethereum Exchange Netflow Chart)
ETH inflow accumulation.
(High Weighted Selling Pressure Chart)
Some long-term holders are selling, and the situation has slightly eased.
Buying Power Rating: Global buying power has significantly rebounded, stablecoin buying power has significantly rebounded.
(Global Buying Power Status Chart)
Global buying power is steadily rebounding.
(Chart of USDT Exchange Net Flows)
Stablecoin buying pressure is recovering significantly.
Off-chain transaction data rating: Buying interest at 85000; Selling interest at 95000.
(Chart of Coinbase Off-chain Data)
Buying interest around 80000, 85000; Selling interest around 95000-98000.
(Chart of Binance Off-chain Data)
Buying interest around 74000-80000, 84000-88000; Selling interest around 92000-95000.
(Chart of Bitfinex Off-chain Data)
Buying interest around 84000, 75000;
Weekly Summary
News Summary:
1. Historically, the fourth quarter tends to perform well, especially in the post-halving phase, giving a sense of returning to the end of 2020.
2. With the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, U.S. bond yields declining, and the U.S. stock market rising, the bullish outlook suggests that rate cuts may continue until the middle of next year.
3. In an ideal bullish scenario, the market rally could continue until the middle of next year.
On-chain Long-term Insights:
1. ETF fund enthusiasm is starting to decline preliminarily;
2. Large-scale exchange net transfers continue to flow out significantly, with whale buying interest persisting;
3. The proportion of long-term holders is decreasing;
4. Short-term participants are absorbing chips.
• Market Tone: External funding seems to show slight signs of decline, while internal purchases remain strong.
On-chain Medium-term Probe:
1. BTC demand remains high, with low potential selling pressure;
2. ETH accumulates a small amount of potential selling pressure, leading to higher volatility;
3. On-chain sentiment is still fluctuating, currently in a moderate-risk stage (between high and low);
4. On-chain momentum is still incremental;
5. Liquidity supply is still increasing;
6. Caution is advised above the 88000-90000 price range.
• Market Sentiment:
Growth, Risk
The market is still in a growth phase and is at a moderate risk level. From a risk management perspective, caution is advised above the price range of 88,000-90,000.
On-chain Short-term Observation:
1. The risk factor is in the red zone, increasing derivative risk.
2. The number of new active addresses is at a very high level, indicating a highly active market.
3. Market sentiment rating: Greed.
4. Exchange net flows are showing a diverging trend, with high ETH selling pressure.
5. Global buying power is increasing significantly, stablecoin buying power is also rising.
6. Off-chain transaction data indicates buying interest at 85,000 and selling interest at 95,000.
7. In the short term, there is a 70% probability that the price will not drop below 71,000-74,000; with a 60% probability that the price will not rise above 95,000-100,000 in the short term.
• Market Sentiment:
In the short term, BTC is still in a strong low position, and ETH's on-chain selling pressure will continue to affect the exchange rate.
The market is poised for short-term volatility, with the possibility of a minor pullback for derivatives liquidation, but the market's positive sentiment remains high, making a sharp decline highly unlikely.
Risk Warning: The above are all market discussions and explorations, and do not provide directional investment advice; please treat with caution and guard against market black swan risks.
This article is contributed content and does not represent the views of BlockBeats.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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