US election outcome won’t slow Q4 Bitcoin rally, says hedge fund

Bitcoin’s price will benefit from the upcoming United States presidential election regardless of who wins, according to the investment chief behind ZX Squared Capital.

The impact of April’s Bitcoin halving event has historically led to strong fourth quarters, and both US presidential candidates have failed to address a key issue that could play into Bitcoin’s favor, CK Zheng, chief investment officer of crypto hedge fund ZX Squared Capital, told Cointelegraph. 

“As both Republican and Democratic parties do not appropriately address the ever-increasing US debts and deficits during this election, this will be very bullish for Bitcoin especially post the US election.”

Bitcoin (BTC) has also benefited from uncertainties stemming from previous US presidential elections before the winning party was declared, and Zheng believes it won’t be any different this time.

CoinGlass data shows that Bitcoin has historically soared in the fourth quarter, rallying more than 50% six times since 2013. Years in which Bitcoin halving events occur often boosted those gains, too.

During the last halving, Bitcoin rallied 168% in the fourth quarter of 2020, which also happened to be the year the last US presidential election took place.

Bitcoin’s quarter-on-quarter returns since 2015. Source: Coinglass

Zheng expects Bitcoin to notch a new all-time high in Q4 or soon after.

But Samantha Yap, CEO and founder of Web3 PR firm YAP told Cointelegraph that Bitcoin rallies and their resulting price rises are often the “least interesting aspect.” 

“What matters is the surge in retail interest across the crypto industry that follows. Media attention often follows retail attention, kicking off a whole media frenzy. The hope for the crypto and Web3 space during these moments is that there are more usable and accessible applications ready for newcomers to adopt.”

Related: Crypto becomes US election issue for the first time — Survey

Meanwhile, Zheng said the Federal Reserve’s “aggressive” 50 basis point interest rate cut could also be “bullish” for Bitcoin and risk-on assets if the US economy can achieve a “soft landing.”

Central banks aim to achieve this soft landing by changing interest rates enough to stop an economy from overheating and experiencing high inflation but not enough to cause a downturn.

If the Federal Reserve is successful, Zheng expects Bitcoin’s price to be highly correlated with the NASDAQ. 

Source: Crypto Rover

”Liquidity is slowly being reintroduced into the market, which may set the stage for stronger price movements in the months ahead,” added Leo Fan, a founder at zk proof generation and verification layer 1 Cysic.

“Bitcoin’s growing narrative as ‘digital gold’ and a hedge against macroeconomic instability is likely to attract more institutional capital, especially as traditional markets remain volatile.”

Bitcoin is currently trading at $64,400, down 2% over the last 24 hours.

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